Daily Market Review for October 30th 2013
Major Economic Data to keep an eye on:
Make sure to keep track of economic news related to your open positions.
We have a busy economic news today.
EUR – Spanish GDP (QoQ +YoY) – 8:00 GMT
EUR – German Unemployment Rate – 8:55 GMT
NOK – Norwegian Core Retail Sales – 9:00 GMT
NOK – Norwegian Unemployment Rate – 9:00 GMT
EUR – German 10 Year Bund Auction – 10:30 GMT
USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 12:15 GMT
USD – Core CPI (MoM + YoY) – 12:30 GMT
USD – FOMC Statement – 18:00 GMT
USD – Interest Rate Decision – 18:00 GMT
NZD – Interest Rate Decision + Rate Statement – 20:00 GMT
NZD – Building Consents (MoM) – 21:45 GMT
The S&P 500 registered its fourth consecutive advance, climbing 0.6% to extend its October gain to 5.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) outperformed the benchmark index while the Nasdaq (+0.3%) lagged after starting the session in-line with the S&P.
Given the recent government shutdown, economists think there is a very little chance the Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of its asset-purchase program — that is, “taper” — at the end of their two-day meeting Wednesday.
So what are they looking for?
The key question on everyone’s mind is whether the central bank will say anything to cement expectations that the first tapering will come in 2014. It’s all about analyzing the word ‘Tapering’ in their statements later on today.
The forex market came to a virtual standstill early Wednesday, with the major currency pairs moving sideways ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement, due later in the day.
After seeing a modest increase in Tuesday trading, the ICE dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rivals, turned flat, quoted at 79.645, compared to 79.644 late Tuesday in North America.
“The relative outlook for monetary policy is likely to move in the dollar’s favor. That is, we suspect there is more room for the [European Central Bank] to surprise on the dovish side as the market gets more comfortable with a 2014 taper from the Fed,” economists said.
They also cited “likely upside risk to U.S. growth surprises, given the recent deterioration in U.S. forecasts.”
As the lack of movement in dollar index suggested, the top currency pairs sat little changed from their late-Tuesday levels.
The euro bought $1.3738, negligibly down from $1.3743, while the British pound was quoted at $1.6038, compared to $1.6035.
The Japanese yen also stood still, with the dollar at ¥98.17, versus ¥98.19 late Tuesday, the pair is likely to find support at 96.66, the low of October 7 and resistance at 98.45.
In Asian trading Wed, AUD/USD fell 0.13% to 0.9468, near a two-week low. The pair was likely to find support at 0.9435, the low of October 14 and resistance at 0.9623, Monday’s high.
Benchmark U.S. oil futures dipped below $98 a barrel in electronic trading Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprisingly large rise in crude supplies.
By late Wednesday morning in East Asia, December crude had shed 58 cents, or 0.6%, to $97.62 a barrel, down from the $98.20 close on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Futures prices for gold dipped Wednesday as markets awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy meeting.
December gold fell $1.70, or 0.1%, to $1,343.80 an ounce in electronic trade.
The move extended Tuesday’s losses for the contract, which fell below the key technical level of $1,350 an ounce.
